Confidence
Confidence is evidence quality
- Confidence should rise when evidence improves.
- Low confidence does not mean bad idea; it means more learning is needed.
- AI can draft confidence notes, but humans must check the evidence basis.
Weak versus strong
High confidence
Weak
Everyone in the room likes it.
Strong
Supported by research, analytics, feasibility input, and prototype evidence.
Medium confidence
Weak
AI sounded confident.
Strong
Some evidence, but key assumptions remain.
Low confidence
Weak
A vague hunch disguised as fact.
Strong
Promising idea with little evidence yet.